By Dr Terence G Sibiya
The UN Economic Development in Africa report, released earlier this year, considers what African economies can do to strengthen resilience to trade risks caused by interconnected shocks across political, economic, energy, technological, and climate fronts. Many global crises, including the legacy of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and more recently tariffs which are being negotiated between African states and the US, introduce degrees of uncertainty, and necessitate greater resilience by African economies. Reliance on foreign markets, volatile commodity exports, high debt, and weak infrastructure have increased our vulnerability to economic shocks. As Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago stated in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this year, the global economy faces economic fragmentation, and this raises the level of uncertainty. Strengthening our resilience is necessary to create a buffer against uncertain headwinds.
While these are certainly challenges, they can also present an opportunity for Africa to build self-sufficiency and economic stability. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is certainly one of the mechanisms we have to achieve this, with its potential estimated at $3.4-trillion, according to UN Trade and Development. AfCFTA is designed to unlock Africa’s economic strength from within, reducing dependency on external markets and enhancing regional trade networks. As things stand, intra-African trade accounts for just 16% of our total trade on the continent. Over 50% of the continent’s imports and exports are tied to just five economies, all outside of Africa. Meanwhile, only 16 of 54 African nations source more than 0.5% of intermediate goods regionally, which is a missed opportunity for value-added trade and manufacturing on the continent.
Strengthening and diversifying Africa’s trade networks is key to building resilience, but infrastructure gaps, especially in transport and electricity, and non-tariff barriers, all pose hindrances to regional supply chains. Poor telecommunications connectivity also stands as an obstacle to trade growth. For example, road transport accounts for about 29% of the price of goods traded within Africa, compared to just 7% for those traded outside the continent. Without significant investment in infrastructure, trade liberalisation alone will not be enough to drive economic transformation.
With these infrastructure backlogs and fiscal constraints in the public sector, attracting private sector capital has become essential to unlocking infrastructure expansion and improving cross-border connectivity, which in turn will drive economic growth and boost revenue for African nations. Governments alone cannot bridge this gap, which is why public-private partnerships (PPPs) are crucial in financing infrastructure and trade-related projects. Blended finance models (DFIs + commercial banks) will be instrumental in financing this transformation. The African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that Africa requires between $130-billion and $170-billion annually for infrastructure, but there remains a $100-billion funding gap. The private sector must step up to help bridge this gap by leveraging its capital and expertise to fast-track critical projects. The leveraging of solid blended finance models will also be critical in the execution of necessary projects.
Accelerating economic integration requires AfCFTA member states to collaborate with the private sector to unlock business opportunities and tackle trade and investment barriers. While the private sector stands ready to invest in infrastructure, logistics, and renewable energy, governments will need to implement reforms that encourage this private sector investment and financing.
In particular, regulatory frameworks must be harmonised across countries to create a stable and predictable business environment that fosters investor confidence. As the African Union (AU) states in its Agenda 2063, success requires political leadership, vision, and commitment as well as the capacity to implement change.
As the Group Managing Executive for Nedbank Africa Regions, I recognise that bridging the gap between policy ambition and real-world execution requires financial institutions to lead from the front in all our markets. Our commitment goes beyond financing. We actively support cross-border trade, investment facilitation, and financial inclusion, having sustainable financing at the core of our business and strategy.
Our current footprint in Africa includes operations in Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe as well as representative offices in Kenya and Ghana, with plans to expand our presence over time. Nedbank offers banking and related services across NAR for retail clients, small and medium enterprises, larger businesses and corporates, as well as institutions. We offer a full range of banking services, including transactional, lending, deposit-taking, card, bancassurance and selected wealth management offerings. These place us at the forefront of promoting sustainable economic growth in Africa.
Africa’s economic trajectory is increasingly influenced by global trade and policy frameworks. South Africa’s G20 Presidency, under the theme of “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability,” presents an opportunity to ensure that Africa’s economic priorities are not just heard but acted upon on the global stage. President Cyril Ramaphosa has underscored the urgent need for climate-resilient funding, responsible debt relief, and the sustainable development of mineral resources. These are not abstract policy considerations. They have real and immediate implications for businesses, from capital flows to infrastructure investment and global competitiveness.
This Africa Month, we declare that the time for planning is over – the time for action is now. We must make the most of the opportunities that the AfCFTA presents. AfCFTA’s success will not be measured by rhetoric but by the tangible progress we make in building a truly integrated, economically empowered Africa. Let us move beyond ambition and into execution because Africa’s future will not build itself. We must build it together.
Terence G Sibiya is Nedbank’s Group Managing Executive: Nedbank Africa Regions
